daventrycalling

2010 is here and within the next 150 days Gordon Brown has to call a General Election.

Christmas has been relatively quiet politically, with all sides seemingly taking the opportunity to make the most of the holiday season and take a break from campaigning. However, as you read this the direct-mail campaigns will be getting back into action, the telephone canvassers clearing their throats and political activists up and down the country will be getting out their coats, scarves and canvass cards ready for another session of door-knocking.

Quaint though this all sounds, the coming General Election will bring about massive changes to the way the UK is governed, no matter what the result.

A mass of different factors mean that the House of Commons will look and feel completely different. The expenses scandal, a generational change and potentially political change as well will almost certainly mean that half of the new House of Commons will be virgin politicians.

But let’s start at the beginning: when will the election be called?

Although it is convention that elections are called on a Thursday, it is not the law. The last General Election not to be held on a Thursday was back on Tuesday 27th October, 1931. However we can be sure that this Gordon Brown will follow the convention and will call it on a Thursday.

The election period can be as short as 16 working days and it is widely assumed that we will have the shortest campaign possible this time.

So, extrapolating all this out, the following are the most likely dates for the next General Election:
Thursday 28th January, 4th February, 11th February, 18th February (Half-Term), 25th February, 4th March, 11th March, 18th March, 25th March, 1st April (Maundy Thursday), 8th April, 15th April, 22nd April, 29th April, 6th May (Local election day), 13th May, 20th May, 27th May and 3rd June.

However, Gordon Brown does not have the choice of all these dates. It would be highly unlikely that he would choose to have the election in the February half-term school break or Maundy Thursday. It would also not be likely for him to choose a date wither three weeks before or three weeks after the Local Election date of May 6th.

June 3rd also falls within the May half-term break. Whilst it is possible for an election to be called in Half-Term, political folk law states that many people choose to go away from home in Half-Terms, thus decreasing turnout – and there are also costs associated in opening schools that have been closed for holidays.
So eliminate all those and you are left with:

Thursday 28th January, 4th February, 11th February, 25th February, 4th March, 11th March, 18th March, 25th March, 8th April or 6th May (Local election day).

Before the Christmas break the press were getting all excited about the prospect of an election on 25th March. However, this date has some significant problems attached to it – it has been named as the date of the next meeting of the European Council, where heads of government meet up to negotiate on top-line European matters. It will be a significant meeting, as it will be the first formal meeting where the new President of the Council, Herman Van Rompuy is actually in office and after the new European Commission have been confirmed. Precedent states that it would be highly irregular for a head of government not to be present for the two day meeting; especially such an important one at the beginning of this new, constitutionally different, European political regime.

Thus, it would be a fair guess to say that all of Gordon Brown’s civil service advisors would be counselling him to avoid this date.

It is also highly unlikely that Gordon Brown will call an election in the first two weeks of 2010 and so the remaining possible dates are:
Thursday 11th February, 25th February, 4th March, 11th March, 18th March, 8th April or 6th May (Local election day).

Another factor that would play heavily on the former Chancellor’s mind would be when he could have a Budget. Budgets normally take place in March, although 2009’s actually took place on 22nd April. The Budget is followed by four days of debate and can not be held within three months of a pre-Budget report (PBR). This year’s PBR was on 9th December, meaning that the earliest date for a Budget in 2010 would be 9th March.

It would be a fair assumption to believe that this could be the launch pad of any election campaign; with the major political parties setting out their economic policies for the next government before heading out to the country.

This almost certainly rules out February and the remaining March dates for the General Election.

The obvious favourite therefore remains Thursday 6th May, 2010.

However, it is well known that Labour Metropolitan Councillors are lobbying for the Prime Minister not to have the local and general elections on the same day. Their fear is based upon turnout. Local elections rarely get about 40% turnout, a General Election normally gets over 60%. It would be expected that if voters are given two ballot papers, they will use them and their worry is that a resurgent Tory Party would benefit from the extra turnout and many incumbent Labour Councillors would lose their seats.

Few doubt that this fact would trouble Gordon Brown, who would be hoping that he would be able to close any Conservative lead in the polls in the course of the General Election, but this will be yet another significant factor for him to weigh up when making his decision.

However if you fancied a sneaky bet on a date as yet unfancied by the bookies, perhaps Thursday 8th April should be your choice.